Rethinking Gulf Security Following the Iran-Israel War

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Recognizing a Palestinian State Is Not a Policy on Its Own

Afkār

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Small Tax, Big Bargain: Oman Tests Its Rentier Contract

Afkār

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Recent
Publications

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August 4, 2025
Policy Paper -
Beyond Competition: Japan, South Korea and the Imperative for Cooperation in the Middle East

As geopolitical competition intensifies and energy security remains paramount, Japan and South Korea are recalibrating their roles in the Middle East. Despite a long-standing economic and strategic rivalry, both countries—key East Asian middle powers—now face a shared imperative: to cooperate on issues ranging from maritime security and defense diplomacy to renewable energy and Gaza reconstruction. This policy paper explores how Tokyo and Seoul can balance competition with pragmatic collaboration to advance mutual interests and contribute to regional stability.

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July 31, 2025
Policy Note -
After the Shock: The Israel-Iran War’s Economic Impact on the Gulf

The 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025 sent shockwaves through the Gulf, not for its immediate economic damage, but for what it revealed: the fragility of the Gulf’s security assumptions, the limits of U.S. protection, and the looming threat to vital trade routes. While oil prices and markets quickly rebounded, the psychological and strategic consequences have left Gulf states grappling with new uncertainties. This analysis explores the conflict’s economic aftermath and what it means for the future of GCC resilience, defense, and diplomacy.

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July 27, 2025
Policy Note -
Yemen’s Quagmire: Why Isn’t U.S. Might Winning?

The Red Sea has been at the center of a radical shift in the global maritime security landscape since October 2023, when Yemen’s Houthis (also known as Ansar Allah) launched a campaign of repeated attacks on commercial and military vessels in one of the world’s most important waterways. These attacks, which the Houthis announced were… Continue reading Yemen’s Quagmire: Why Isn’t U.S. Might Winning?

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August 4, 2025
Policy Paper -
Beyond Competition: Japan, South Korea and the Imperative for Cooperation in the Middle East

As geopolitical competition intensifies and energy security remains paramount, Japan and South Korea are recalibrating their roles in the Middle East. Despite a long-standing economic and strategic rivalry, both countries—key East Asian middle powers—now face a shared imperative: to cooperate on issues ranging from maritime security and defense diplomacy to renewable energy and Gaza reconstruction. This policy paper explores how Tokyo and Seoul can balance competition with pragmatic collaboration to advance mutual interests and contribute to regional stability.

learn more
August 4, 2025
Policy Paper -
Beyond Competition: Japan, South Korea and the Imperative for Cooperation in the Middle East

As geopolitical competition intensifies and energy security remains paramount, Japan and South Korea are recalibrating their roles in the Middle East. Despite a long-standing economic and strategic rivalry, both countries—key East Asian middle powers—now face a shared imperative: to cooperate on issues ranging from maritime security and defense diplomacy to renewable energy and Gaza reconstruction. This policy paper explores how Tokyo and Seoul can balance competition with pragmatic collaboration to advance mutual interests and contribute to regional stability.

learn more
August 4, 2025
Policy Paper -
Beyond Competition: Japan, South Korea and the Imperative for Cooperation in the Middle East

As geopolitical competition intensifies and energy security remains paramount, Japan and South Korea are recalibrating their roles in the Middle East. Despite a long-standing economic and strategic rivalry, both countries—key East Asian middle powers—now face a shared imperative: to cooperate on issues ranging from maritime security and defense diplomacy to renewable energy and Gaza reconstruction. This policy paper explores how Tokyo and Seoul can balance competition with pragmatic collaboration to advance mutual interests and contribute to regional stability.

learn more
July 31, 2025
Policy Note -
After the Shock: The Israel-Iran War’s Economic Impact on the Gulf

The 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025 sent shockwaves through the Gulf, not for its immediate economic damage, but for what it revealed: the fragility of the Gulf’s security assumptions, the limits of U.S. protection, and the looming threat to vital trade routes. While oil prices and markets quickly rebounded, the psychological and strategic consequences have left Gulf states grappling with new uncertainties. This analysis explores the conflict’s economic aftermath and what it means for the future of GCC resilience, defense, and diplomacy.

learn more
July 27, 2025
Policy Note -
Yemen’s Quagmire: Why Isn’t U.S. Might Winning?

The Red Sea has been at the center of a radical shift in the global maritime security landscape since October 2023, when Yemen’s Houthis (also known as Ansar Allah) launched a campaign of repeated attacks on commercial and military vessels in one of the world’s most important waterways. These attacks, which the Houthis announced were… Continue reading Yemen’s Quagmire: Why Isn’t U.S. Might Winning?

learn more

Events

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2 September 2025
upcoming event 6:00 pm GMT - 7:30 pm GMT
Rethinking Gulf Security Following the Iran-Israel War
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16 July 2025
past event 4:00 pm GMT - 5:15 pm GMT
Operation Rising Lion and the Gulf’s Balancing Act
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18 June 2025
past event 4:00 pm GMT - 5:15 pm GMT
Israel-Iran Escalating Confrontation: What is at Stake in the region?
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02 September 2025
upcoming event 6:00 pm GMT - 7:30 pm GMT

Rethinking Gulf Security Following the Iran-Israel War

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16 July 2025
past event 4:00 pm GMT - 5:15 pm GMT

Operation Rising Lion and the Gulf’s Balancing Act

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18 June 2025
past event 4:00 pm GMT - 5:15 pm GMT

Israel-Iran Escalating Confrontation: What is at Stake in the region?

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Afkar

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August 14, 2025
Assessing China’s Shifting Posture on Syria

Chinese officials face an uphill battle in managing relations with Syria’s new interim government following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024. Both seem desirous to find ways to re-engage, but the gap between expectations for the moment remains too wide. Beijing wants the foreign terrorist threat removed from Syria. Syrian authorities, however,… Continue reading Assessing China’s Shifting Posture on Syria

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August 11, 2025
Recognizing a Palestinian State Is Not a Policy on Its Own

Against the backdrop of the daily horrors taking place in Gaza, a wave of Western countries have decided to recognize the State of Palestine. After Ireland, Spain and Norway took the step in 2024, France and Australia have pledged to follow suit at the United Nations General Assembly in September. The United Kingdom and Canada… Continue reading Recognizing a Palestinian State Is Not a Policy on Its Own

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August 10, 2025
Small Tax, Big Bargain: Oman Tests Its Rentier Contract

In June 2025, Oman took a step that no Gulf monarchy had attempted before: announcing plans for direct taxation starting in 2028. At 5 percent on earnings above 42,000 OMR (~$109,000)—roughly the top 1 percent of earners—the financial returns will be modest. The signal, however, is not. By introducing a narrowly targeted personal income tax… Continue reading Small Tax, Big Bargain: Oman Tests Its Rentier Contract

learn more
August 14, 2025
Assessing China’s Shifting Posture on Syria

Chinese officials face an uphill battle in managing relations with Syria’s new interim government following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024. Both seem desirous to find ways to re-engage, but the gap between expectations for the moment remains too wide. Beijing wants the foreign terrorist threat removed from Syria. Syrian authorities, however,… Continue reading Assessing China’s Shifting Posture on Syria

learn more
August 11, 2025
Recognizing a Palestinian State Is Not a Policy on Its Own

Against the backdrop of the daily horrors taking place in Gaza, a wave of Western countries have decided to recognize the State of Palestine. After Ireland, Spain and Norway took the step in 2024, France and Australia have pledged to follow suit at the United Nations General Assembly in September. The United Kingdom and Canada… Continue reading Recognizing a Palestinian State Is Not a Policy on Its Own

learn more
August 10, 2025
Small Tax, Big Bargain: Oman Tests Its Rentier Contract

In June 2025, Oman took a step that no Gulf monarchy had attempted before: announcing plans for direct taxation starting in 2028. At 5 percent on earnings above 42,000 OMR (~$109,000)—roughly the top 1 percent of earners—the financial returns will be modest. The signal, however, is not. By introducing a narrowly targeted personal income tax… Continue reading Small Tax, Big Bargain: Oman Tests Its Rentier Contract

learn more