The U.S. midterm elections slated for November 3 constitute a critical temporal threshold in the U.S.-Iranian confrontation. Although President Donald Trump has repeatedly invoked the elections as an inflection point in the war’s trajectory, their significance lies less in setting a deadline for settlement than in potentially changing the incentives governing military escalation. The period… Continue reading U.S.-Iran Diplomacy Against the Electoral Clock

The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has demonstrated the danger of relying heavily on a single maritime corridor. But the problem extends beyond Hormuz. Ongoing insecurity in the Red Sea and Black Sea means that several routes carrying the world’s energy, food, and goods are under pressure at the same time. When… Continue reading Maritime Disruptions Are Creating a New Economics of Connectivity

When a missile struck the passenger terminal at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on October 10, killing 13 people, followed by another projectile that hit the same terminal the next day, an old question resurfaced: having spent tens of billions of dollars on armaments, what has Saudi Arabia actually bought? While the loss of… Continue reading Spending vs. Effectiveness: The Saudi Defense Dilemma