Months of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and Iranian retaliation against Gulf states hosting U.S. military installations, have reframed the principal question confronting Gulf security. It is no longer simply whether alliances can deter aggression, but whether they offer sufficient agency to shape the conditions under which deterrence succeeds, fails, or gives way to… Continue reading When It Comes to US Security Arrangements, Gulf States Suffer an Agency Deficit

For the past two decades, Lebanon has been of limited strategic importance for Türkiye, notwithstanding Turkish development projects—especially in Beirut and the North—and efforts to foster diplomatic ties with the Lebanese state and balanced relations with Lebanon’s various political factions. Türkiye has not viewed Lebanon as a primary sphere of influence, in contrast to Syria,… Continue reading Türkiye’s Calculus in Lebanon: A Cautious Strategic Presence

The strength of ideological-authoritarian regimes is usually measured against their tangible capabilities: military arsenals, missile and nuclear programs, security agencies and regional proxies. Yet their collapse does not always stem from the weakening of these foundations. Rather, regimes often succumb to a silent erosion of chains of command, networks of vested interests, and the loyalties… Continue reading How Ideological-Authoritarian Regimes Collapse